U.S. corporate leaders are expressing growing caution as they look toward the final months of 2025. According to The Conference Board’s latest Measure of CEO Confidence, sentiment among top executives declined slightly in the fourth quarter, falling to a reading of 48 from 49 in the previous quarter. This score, which remains below the neutral benchmark of 50, indicates that more CEOs hold negative views than positive ones about the economic outlook.
The survey, conducted in partnership with The Business Council, reflects responses from 130 CEOs across a broad range of industries. The findings suggest a subtle but noteworthy shift in executive mood—marked by resilience in industry-specific outlooks, but an increasingly dim view of broader economic conditions. Many respondents cited ongoing concerns over persistent cost pressures, global growth uncertainty, and challenges in securing and retaining skilled talent.
In terms of present conditions, 37% of CEOs reported that the U.S. economy had worsened over the past six months, an increase from 34% in the third quarter. Only 20% said conditions had improved, down slightly from the prior quarter’s 22%. Expectations for the coming six months painted an even more cautious picture: 38% of CEOs anticipated further deterioration in the economy, while only 24% expected improvement—a decline from the 30% who held that view in Q3.
Despite the overall drop in optimism, the outlook for individual industries showed a glimmer of stability. Twenty-nine percent of CEOs said their own industries were performing better than six months ago, a notable improvement from 18% in the previous survey. However, 38% still viewed their industries as worse off—a number that remained unchanged from the third quarter.
Investment plans, while more conservative, have not been abandoned. In fact, some metrics suggested a modest uptick in spending intentions. Twenty-two percent of CEOs indicated they plan to increase capital expenditures in the near term, up from 15% in Q3. A majority—57%—said their capital spending would remain unchanged, while 20% signaled reductions.
The employment outlook also offered some encouraging signs. Thirty-two percent of CEOs planned to expand their workforce, compared to 27% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the share of CEOs expecting to cut jobs declined to 29%, down from 34%. These numbers indicate that although executives are wary of broader macroeconomic risks, they are not retreating en masse from hiring or investing in talent.
A majority of executives expressed the belief that the U.S. is unlikely to fall into a deep recession. Only 4% said they expect a full-blown economic contraction in the next 12 to 18 months. Instead, 64% predicted a mild slowdown accompanied by elevated but manageable inflation. This view suggests that corporate leaders are preparing for an environment characterized by slow growth, increased scrutiny on costs, and tighter operational execution.
Other top concerns included geopolitical instability, cybersecurity threats, and the rapid pace of technological change—particularly in relation to artificial intelligence. These factors are adding layers of complexity to strategic planning, and may partly explain the hesitancy reflected in the confidence index.
For corporate strategists, investors, and policymakers, the decline in CEO confidence serves as a warning sign. While not catastrophic, the data implies a more cautious approach to decision-making across the private sector. Companies are likely to prioritize stability, maintain disciplined financial practices, and avoid overextending in the face of uncertain conditions.
The business community’s shift in tone also underscores the importance of clear and proactive communication from leadership. In an environment where optimism is tempered, investors and stakeholders may reward companies that deliver consistent performance, demonstrate risk-awareness, and articulate pragmatic paths forward.
As 2025 draws to a close, all eyes will be on upcoming policy decisions, global economic signals, and corporate earnings reports for further indications of whether caution will give way to contraction—or if, instead, it might set the stage for a more sustainable rebound in the months ahead.
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